Get ready for a box office showdown this holiday season, as Disney’s Zootopia 2 gears up to challenge Moana 2’s Thanksgiving record of $139.8 million. But here’s where it gets controversial: could Zootopia 2 really hit the $115-130 million mark in its opening weekend, or is that just wishful thinking? Let’s dive into the details and find out. And this is the part most people miss: the holiday season isn’t just about one blockbuster—it’s a battleground of films vying for your attention. From Wicked: For Good to Eternity, each release has its own strategy, but will they all succeed? Posted on October 17, 2025, by Shawn Robbins, this analysis from Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter (https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/6-week-box-office-tracking-and-forecasts-zootopia2-115-130-rival-moana2-thanksgiving-wicked-for-good-155) breaks it all down.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
November 26: The Thanksgiving Weekend Showdown
See AlsoBBC's Gaza Documentary Scandal: Ofcom's Verdict and the Impact on TrustStiller & Meara: Nothing Is Lost - Ben Stiller Documentary Review 2024The Improv That Changed the MCU: How RDJ's 'I Am Iron Man' Shaped Marvel Forever'Battle Royale' Returns to Theaters: 25th Anniversary Screenings & Impact on Pop Culture- Disney’s *Zootopia 2: Mark your calendars because this is the first major studio animated release since *The Bad Guys 2 in August. The original Zootopia opened to a whopping $75.1 million domestically in 2016, ranking it as the sixth-best debut for an original narrative film. But will the sequel live up to the hype? With a holiday runway stretching through Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s, the potential is massive. Yet, here’s the catch: Wicked: For Good is also in the mix, targeting a similar family audience. While Zootopia 2’s direct competition will come later with The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, the overlap with Wicked could be a game-changer. Question for you: Can Zootopia 2 dominate despite the competition, or will it fall short?
- A24’s *Eternity*: This rom-drama, starring Elizabeth Olsen, Miles Teller, and Callum Turner, is the wildcard. Already earning praise on the film festival circuit, it’s poised to attract both A24 loyalists and date-night crowds. But will it hold its own against the big-budget blockbusters?
- Rian Johnson’s *Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery: Netflix’s brief theatrical release strategy continues with this film. While details are scarce, it’s expected to follow a similar pattern to *Glass Onion. Bold prediction: Could this become the sleeper hit of the season?
Wicked: For Good Update
- Pre-sales for Wicked: For Good are through the roof, outpacing its predecessor at the same point. With opening weekend projections at $155 million or more, it’s on track to be one of the biggest musical openings ever. But here’s the debate: Can it surpass Beauty and the Beast’s $174.8 million record? Share your thoughts in the comments!
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts (as of 10/16/25):
Below is a snapshot of upcoming releases, complete with opening weekend and domestic total forecasts. For full ranges and pinpoint forecasts, check out the paid version of our Substack newsletter (https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/6-week-box-office-tracking-and-forecasts-zootopia2-115-130-rival-moana2-thanksgiving-wicked-for-good-155).
| Release Date | Title | Distributor | 3-Day Low | 3-Day High | 3-Day Pinpoint | 5-Day Pinpoint | Domestic Low | Domestic High | Domestic Pinpoint |
|--------------|-------|-------------|-----------|------------|----------------|---------------|--------------|---------------|------------------|
| 10/24/2025 | Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc | Sony Pictures | $10M | $15M | $12.4M | $15M | $28M | $19.5M | - |
| 10/24/2025 | Regretting You | Paramount Pictures | $11M | $16M | $13M | $29.3M | $51.8M | $45M | - |
| 10/24/2025 | Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere | Disney | $20M | $27M | $24M | $67M | $94M | $75M | - |
| 10/31/2025 | Back to the Future (40th Anniversary) | Universal Pictures | $4M | $6.5M | $5.5M | $5M | $9.75M | $8.3M | - |
| 10/31/2025 | Bugonia (Wide Expansion) | Focus Features | $1.5M | $5M | $2M | $5M | $18M | $7M | - |
| 11/7/2025 | Christy | Black Bear | $2M | $5M | $3M | $5M | $20M | $10M | - |
| 11/7/2025 | Predator: Badlands | Disney | $20M | $30M | $25M | $44M | $72M | $52.6M | - |
| 11/7/2025 | Sarah’s Oil | Amazon MGM Studios | $1M | $3M | $1M | $2.75M | $10M | $2.5M | - |
| 11/14/2025 | Now You See Me: Now You Don’t | Lionsgate | $12M | $17M | $12M | $34M | $49M | $40M | - |
| 11/14/2025 | Keeper | NEON | $6M | $11M | $7.5M | $15M | $29M | $19M | - |
| 11/14/2025 | The Running Man (2025) | Paramount Pictures | $22M | $31M | $27M | $70M | $125M | $112M | - |
| 11/21/2025 | Rental Family | Disney | $2M | $5M | $2.5M | $6M | $20M | $8M | - |
| 11/21/2025 | SISU: ROAD TO REVENGE | Sony Pictures | $3M | $6M | $4M | $6M | $13M | $8M | - |
| 11/21/2025 | Wicked: For Good | Universal Pictures | $155M | $190M | $165M | $449M | $519M | $481M | - |
| 11/26/2025 | Eternity | A24 | $3.5M | $21M | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11/26/2025 | Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery | Netflix | $10M | $15.5M | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11/26/2025 | Zootopia 2 | Disney | $115M | $130M+ | - | - | $394M | - | - |
Final Note: All forecasts are based on current trends and are subject to change. The holiday season is unpredictable, and every film has its strengths and weaknesses. What’s your take? Which film will reign supreme, and which will fall flat? Let’s discuss in the comments!
